Duke Recruiting General Discussion

[Devilsforlife]

Defense is simultaneously instinctive and anticipatory, and requires far more effort than offense. You don't get a Shane Battier

Agree with you wholeheartedly. I feel like people describe one of the key strengths of guards like Tyus as being able to "see the floor" on offense -- there's a similar ability some players have to see the floor on defense. Plus motor, and length, etc., but a lot of it is mental.

Shane Battier is a great example of this--so cerebral on defense, anticipating everything like a game of chess, and then just out efforting everyone all the time.

To be fair to our perimeter defenders, it's hard to be a good defender when you're forced to pick your guy up 26 feet from the hoop while pressuring off the ball...and playing 36 minutes per game

Louisville plays with high up the linee defensive pressure and have an elite defense every season. This is the case because A.) Pitino recruits long athletes with quick feet, and he emphasizes defense (not sure how much K does anymore). His teams are built around multi-year, strong, long, athletic players that understand the system and the defensive standard. B.) Pitino almost always has multiple big men that are tall and long, block shots, and rebound well. Yes, his perimeter players sometimes get burned, but there are big athletes on the backline altering shots and rebounding misses. Pitino also develops and gives PT to his big men, even if they aren't particularly ready- and this pays off in a big way for Louisville.

It can be done- Louisville is a prime example. Brad Underwood and Bob Huggins also run hc pressure m2m defenses very effectively- those 3 programs are also very different than ours culture wise at the moment.

A perimeter defense of Grayson Allen-Kennard-Matt Jones is going to be pretty mediocre in any system.

I wish Duke had been better on the defensive end over the last five or so years, but I certainly would not want to trade the results achieved by Pitino (especially when you consider his 2013 title is tainted), Huggins, or Underwood, nor the talent level on their respective squads.

Ideally, we should be fielding top 10 defenses to complement the highly ranked offenses with the perfect blend of OADs and talented upperclassmen, but when it really comes down to it, is there another program any of you would want to swap results with over the past decade? Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, UConn... No thanks. Ditto for the second-tier Villanova, Louisville, Michigan St.-level programs.

So for all the legitimate complaints many of us have about K and the program, being a Duke basketball fan is still a pretty sweet experience. My main concern is for the next few years. Enduring the slow demise of the K era followed by the likely to be dead-on-arrival Capel years (I'd prefer Collins, but have a gut feeling Capel will get the first crack at the job), does not fill me with optimism.

 

[rome8180]

Pitino sacrifices offense for defense. He simply has the opposite problem K does.

The reason his offense sucks, imo, is precisely because of the player profile StF describes. Occasionally these raw athletes turn into good offensive players like Russ Smith and then his offense looks better.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I don't disagree regarding swapping results. I just feel that considering the extreme talent levels we have had on some recent teams that we have had very underwhelming NCAA Tournaments. Being bounced in the first weekend (twice on the opening game) is a hard pill to swallow with the talent we have had. I'm fine with the post-season results from 2013 and 2016. I thought those teams maxed out, at least IMO. 2012, 2014, and 2017 were all really big failures.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Pitino sacrifices offense for defense. He simply has the opposite problem K does.

The reason his offense sucks, imo, is precisely because of the player profile StF describes. Occasionally these raw athletes turn into good offensive players like Russ Smith and then his offense looks better.

I don't know the answer to this question so this is a genuine question, but generally speaking, which fares better in the NCAA Tournament- a really tough defense with an average to below average offense, or a really great offense with a average or below average offense? Are the results similar or does one have the advantage?

 

[DurhamSon]

I think the problem with the defense only teams is that you still have little control over your opponents' three point percentage, and are at the mercy of variance at which point a hot shooting night kills you if you can't muster anything close to that kind of offense.

 

[rome8180]

Defense is simultaneously instinctive and anticipatory, and requires far more effort than offense. You don't get a Shane Battier
Shane Battier is a great example of this--so cerebral on defense, anticipating everything like a game of chess, and then just out efforting everyone all the time.

To be fair to our perimeter defenders, it's hard to be a good defender when you're forced to pick your guy up 26 feet from the hoop while pressuring off the ball...and playing 36 minutes per game

Louisville plays with high up the linee defensive pressure and have an elite defense every season. This is the case because A.) Pitino recruits long athletes with quick feet, and he emphasizes defense (not sure how much K does anymore). His teams are built around multi-year, strong, long, athletic players that understand the system and the defensive standard. B.) Pitino almost always has multiple big men that are tall and long, block shots, and rebound well. Yes, his perimeter players sometimes get burned, but there are big athletes on the backline altering shots and rebounding misses. Pitino also develops and gives PT to his big men, even if they aren't particularly ready- and this pays off in a big way for Louisville.

It can be done- Louisville is a prime example. Brad Underwood and Bob Huggins also run hc pressure m2m defenses very effectively- those 3 programs are also very different than ours culture wise at the moment.

A perimeter defense of Grayson Allen-Kennard-Matt Jones is going to be pretty mediocre in any system.

I wish Duke had been better on the defensive end over the last five or so years, but I certainly would not want to trade the results achieved by Pitino (especially when you consider his 2013 title is tainted), Huggins, or Underwood, nor the talent level on their respective squads.

Ideally, we should be fielding top 10 defenses to complement the highly ranked offenses with the perfect blend of OADs and talented upperclassmen, but when it really comes down to it, is there another program any of you would want to swap results with over the past decade? Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, UConn... No thanks. Ditto for the second-tier Villanova, Louisville, Michigan St.-level programs.

So for all the legitimate complaints many of us have about K and the program, being a Duke basketball fan is still a pretty sweet experience. My main concern is for the next few years. Enduring the slow demise of the K era followed by the likely to be dead-on-arrival Capel years (I'd prefer Collins, but have a gut feeling Capel will get the first crack at the job), does not fill me with optimism.

UNC has two titles, four Final Fours (one a title game appearance), an Elite Eight, and a Sweet Sixteen since 07-08. That's arguably better than Duke's two titles, two Final Fours, one Elite Eight, three Sweet Sixteens, and multiple first weekend exits.

 

[Devilsforlife]

I don't disagree regarding swapping results. I just feel that considering the extreme talent levels we have had on some recent teams that we have had very underwhelming NCAA Tournaments. Being bounced in the first weekend (twice on the opening game) is a hard pill to swallow with the talent we have had. I'm fine with the post-season results from 2013 and 2016. I thought those teams maxed out, at least IMO. 2012, 2014, and 2017 were all really big failures.

2012 had the misfortune of the Kelly injury and facing an NBA talent in CJ McCollum on a 15 seed, while 2017 had to contend with a highly amped up South Carolina team playing a virtual home game in the second round. 2014 was utterly inexcusable across the board. Just a horrific end to a painful season. I'm not happy with the early losses, and given the talent level they are not acceptable, but 2012 and 2017 were not pure chokes at least.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Offense has been shown to objectively have more control over the outcome of a game than defense. Great offenses also have empirically done better than great defenses in winning titles.

Duke's defense has usually been so bad in recent years that it doesn't matter, though.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I would just like us to find a better balance. I would sacrifice our annual top 10 KenPom for a top 20 offense if it gave us a defense that could consistently get into the top 20.

It's absolute fucking bullshit that in 2012 we had the #78 defense, in 2014 the the #87 defense, 2016 the #86 defense. Even in 2015 IIRC we were hanging out in the 60's on defense until that ridiculous defensive run we had in the NCAA Tournament. It's garbage basketball and garbage coaching.

Look at our defensive numbers from 2008-2011. The program changed drastically after this. I think in a way Coach K has lost a big part of the culture from the 2000's. Maybe it was a reaction (or overreaction) to the underwhelming results after 2004, but there is no denying Duke has lost any defensive integrity since we made our recruiting shift. Anyway, here is what I'm looking at:

With much less NBA talent than we have had in recent years, here is KP numbers from 08-11

2008: #14 offense, #7 defense
2009: #7 offense, #31 defense
2010: #1 offense, #5 defense
2011: #6 offense, #10 defense.

Yes, 2010 and 2011 were very talented teams- but my point is that even with much less NBA talent than we are recruiting today, those teams still managed to have very good offenses and very good defenses. I have to think that fall off on defense is just on the culture shift within the program. Coach K could shit out a top offense. He's been one of the best offensive coaches for years- and to be honest at least IMO those offenses were more appealing as they were motion based and really had great perimeter ball movement generated around drive and kick threes and getting the ball to the weakside of the floor to attack closeouts. Those teams shot the ball well, shared the ball, and got into the paint and FT line. Our offense still has good movement at times, and I love how we play in transition (when we get out there) but it's so much more ISO based and at times it is just bullshit.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I don't disagree regarding swapping results. I just feel that considering the extreme talent levels we have had on some recent teams that we have had very underwhelming NCAA Tournaments. Being bounced in the first weekend (twice on the opening game) is a hard pill to swallow with the talent we have had. I'm fine with the post-season results from 2013 and 2016. I thought those teams maxed out, at least IMO. 2012, 2014, and 2017 were all really big failures.

2012 had the misfortune of the Kelly injury and facing an NBA talent in CJ McCollum on a 15 seed, while 2017 had to contend with a highly amped up South Carolina team playing a virtual home game in the second round. 2014 was utterly inexcusable across the board. Just a horrific end to a painful season. I'm not happy with the early losses, and given the talent level they are not acceptable, but 2012 and 2017 were not pure chokes at least.

I think 2017 is inexcusable. The home-court advantage is true and played a role, but, that game ultimately gets down to Coach K being really stubborn and not giving Frank Jackson the keys earlier in the season. We didn't have a lead guard tough enough to initiate the offense in that game and it cost us because USCe hounded us all game. Also- we had 3 first round picks, a high 2nd round pick, and a pre-season All-American- it's a joke that we lost to USCe, home-court advantage and all.

Also, if there was ever a game where I would've liked us to just run Melo-like ISO plays every single play it was that one. Tatum getting an ISO every time down the court would've been better than anything else since we couldn't initiate offense. I would have even preferred some Amile post-ups inside.

 

[DurhamSon]

Yeah we've had this conversation a million times before, there's little more to be said on the matter.

Also, don't look now, but I think the days of automatic top 10 offenses are slowly eroding away too.

 

[rome8180]

Pitino sacrifices offense for defense. He simply has the opposite problem K does.

The reason his offense sucks, imo, is precisely because of the player profile StF describes. Occasionally these raw athletes turn into good offensive players like Russ Smith and then his offense looks better.

I don't know the answer to this question so this is a genuine question, but generally speaking, which fares better in the NCAA Tournament- a really tough defense with an average to below average offense, or a really great offense with a average or below average offense? Are the results similar or does one have the advantage?

This isn't quite the answer, but Kenpom did this study a few years back: https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-the-summary/

Offense has 64% control over its ppp. In other words, a good offense trumps a good defense.

If you don't have time to read the whole thing, just scroll down to his takeaways. One thing that jumps out at me is this:

"The defense’s tools are two-point defense and influencing shot selection. While a frightening number of things are in the offense’s control – leading to the offense having 64% control over its points per possession number – the defense has significant influence over where shots are taken from and how effective the offense is near the rim."

Could it just be that we are playing an asinine style of defense from a probability standpoint? Working hard to contest threes, which are statistically the least in our control, while doing nothing to prevent layups, which are statistically the thing we can control the most?

 

[rome8180]

In fact, that blog is pretty much a strong argument for packline. UVA has not had much tournament success, but their talent also generally sucks. How difficult is packline for freshmen to learn? Is there a reason a team of OADs couldn't do it competently?

Granted, K would have to know how to teach it and be willing to do so.

 

[CMon85]

I also wonder if surrounding potential multi-year guys with so many OADs makes them feel like failures if they don't go OAD too. I've thought that for years UK's culture has been pushing some guys out the door, not actively but in a kind of "You're going to UK? You must be OAD" kind of way.

I think Cal knows that the only way he keeps landing these guys if he pushes them to be 1 and done. He doesn't want them to be one and done, they HAVE to be one and done or he loses his recruiting philosophy. UK fans use this as a Cal cares more about the kids than winning and its laughable.

 

[childress22]

Sure, opponents' 3PT% is random and unaffected by defense, but the volume of opponents' 3pt attempts (part of shot selection) is not, right? I thought that was one thing our defense was relatively good at, even though in some years that's at the expense of open lay-ups.

 

[childress22]

Also, while I believe that Opp 3pt% is random across the pool of teams, and does a poor job of predicting how a given opponent will shoot in a game (esp. if it's Miami), our team's relative effectiveness at this seems to be highly unlikely by chance.

Duke Opponents' 3pt%

2010: .283 (2nd in the country)
2011: . 324 (66th in the country)
2012: .317 (67th in the country)
2013: .276 (1st in the country)
2014: .307 (22nd in the country)
2015: .314 (42nd in the country)
2016: .316 (149th in the country)
2017: .293 (4th in the country)

 

[rome8180]

Sure, opponents' 3PT% is random and unaffected by defense, but the volume of opponents' 3pt attempts (part of shot selection) is not, right? I thought that was one thing our defense was relatively good at, even though in some years that's at the expense of open lay-ups.

Yeah, the blog I posted actually mentions this. Since the offense controls their own 3pt % so much, it's a good idea to limit the number of threes they take.

You could argue that a team like UVA, which allows open threes, is pretty susceptible to being shot out of games, the way we did up there in 2015.

 

[torontoduke]

In fact, that blog is pretty much a strong argument for packline. UVA has not had much tournament success, but their talent also generally sucks. How difficult is packline for freshmen to learn? Is there a reason a team of OADs couldn't do it competently?

Granted, K would have to know how to teach it and be willing to do so.

Last part is key.

 

[torontoduke]

I don't disagree regarding swapping results. I just feel that considering the extreme talent levels we have had on some recent teams that we have had very underwhelming NCAA Tournaments. Being bounced in the first weekend (twice on the opening game) is a hard pill to swallow with the talent we have had. I'm fine with the post-season results from 2013 and 2016. I thought those teams maxed out, at least IMO. 2012, 2014, and 2017 were all really big failures.

2012 had the misfortune of the Kelly injury and facing an NBA talent in CJ McCollum on a 15 seed, while 2017 had to contend with a highly amped up South Carolina team playing a virtual home game in the second round. 2014 was utterly inexcusable across the board. Just a horrific end to a painful season. I'm not happy with the early losses, and given the talent level they are not acceptable, but 2012 and 2017 were not pure chokes at least.

I think 2017 is inexcusable. The home-court advantage is true and played a role, but, that game ultimately gets down to Coach K being really stubborn and not giving Frank Jackson the keys earlier in the season. We didn't have a lead guard tough enough to initiate the offense in that game and it cost us because USCe hounded us all game. Also- we had 3 first round picks, a high 2nd round pick, and a pre-season All-American- it's a joke that we lost to USCe, home-court advantage and all.

Also, if there was ever a game where I would've liked us to just run Melo-like ISO plays every single play it was that one. Tatum getting an ISO every time down the court would've been better than anything else since we couldn't initiate offense. I would have even preferred some Amile post-ups inside.

Giving FJ they keys early on is fair comment, but remember he struggled with playmaking a great deal early on. Many careless turnovers - how many times did he cough it up while trying to split double team? The Devils would likely have to endure more growing pains (possible additional losses) by letting Frank get more experience earlier on at the point. Frank was playing pretty well at the end of the year, but would he initiate the offense that much more efficiently than Grayson even with the added experience of playing PG earlier in the year? His ceiling is higher for certain, I just don't know if he was ready to make that much of a difference in terms of setting the table for others.

 

[rome8180]

Zion Williamson will be at CTC.