Player Marvin Bagley III

[burksballer20]

Last year was such a massive disappointment. If K had been able to coach the defense well enough to allow a meager 57 points to South Carolina in the second half, we are a borderline shoo-in for the Final Four.

But enough about 2016-17. If we get Bagley, I'll be highly optimistic about this coming season, although I still have my doubts over how effectively K will manage the roster.

We legitimately cannot play extended pressure m2m defense this year. We have 3 guards...total. He pulled back the reins in 2010 with 3 guards but that team was never made to press.

 

[rome8180]

I like the nickname Bags, because it will likely take bags of cash to land him.

I'm seeing an odd couple sitcom with him and Capel: Bags and the Bagman.

 

[ZackM]

I like the nickname Bags, because it will likely take bags of cash to land him.

I'm seeing an odd couple sitcom with him and Capel: Bags and the Bagman.

Start writing it. ABC would pick up a show like that.

 

[Si6hts]

does anyone really even think Bagley still joins us this year? feel like its not happening. Would love if it did, but not feeling too hot about this one.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Bagley to Duke this season doesn't do anything for me. I think it'd be best for Duke if he stays on the west coast.

 

[ZackM]

Bagley to Duke this season doesn't do anything for me. I think it'd be best for Duke if he stays on the west coast.

In reality, getting Bagley would just add a ton of pressure to this team because of how much the media will talk about how talented we are. Then we'll look like choakers when we get bounced in the Sweet 16.

 

[rome8180]

Is there an elite shooting guard or small forward we can bully into reclassifying? I'd be all about that.

Zack, Sweet Sixteen feels like a nice accomplishment at this point.

 

[sjsj2448]

does anyone really even think Bagley still joins us this year? .

Yes.

 

[torontoduke]

I also agree that there is a strong chance he will join the Devils.

I am more concerned about the possible pressure/chemistry issues for the team than I am the possible baggage associated with his recruitment.

I understand that they have given strong looks to kids in the past that may have had issues surrounding their recruitment (Bamba, Shabazz as examples) but I would expect that Duke U would have undertaken a thorough review of eligibility before getting this involved.

 

[slswofford3]

Saw on Twitter that he isn't taking a visit to Arizona because they do not have any 2017 scholarships. Narrows it down some.

 

[deepdarkblue]

My main concerns are 1) the disruption he'll cause wrt our roster and 2) will he even be on campus before December.
I don't love the OAD world, but I accept it as a necessary evil because the right kid could win you a championship.
I don't feel that way about a 1/2AD. The chemistry issues could be overwhelming and I couldn't fault current players for jumping ship as a result.

 

[DurhamSon]

I think when you start going down the path of >1 OAD you have to gamble on talent, though. Ideally you'd integrate a OAD or two into a veteran roster, obviously. But when you reach the point you know you aren't going to have that veteran roster, I feel like you've committed yourself to trying to win on sheer talent and thus have to take a chance on anything to increase that collection of talent, consequences be damned. Duke basketball has now reached the point where they are fully committed to that philosophy now, for better or worse.

 

[deepdarkblue]

This is from last week, but just a little something on the Bagley (attempted) reclassification.

http://www.zagsblog.com/2017/07/28/...reclassification-attempt-pretty-late-process/

This is the part that makes me think he wouldn't set foot on campus before December-January:

It’s not going to be a quick deal,” the source said, speaking generally about reclassification. “This kid’s been high-profile for a while and most likely this evaluation is going to take some time just because he’s moved around and he hasn’t even gone through an amateurism certification yet.”

There are no doubt coaching staffs out there that could successfully assimilate a superstar player into their existing roster during the season, but I just don't think Duke is that staff. Hell, they're still struggling to figure out role players and OADs.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

To me, by far the biggest issue with the OAD approach is that the defense, specifically opponent 2pt fg%, is never going to be good. I’m sick of hearing about how certain OADs are great defenders and will improve the defense. It never happens in K’s system- unless you have a veteran team, these guys are constantly going to miss rotations, not communicate well, etc.


That said, the most effective way to mitigate that issue (which is not going away as long as K is here) is to rebound the hell out of the ball. If we can ever be a top tier defensive rebounding team, we can at least limit attempts and make the 2pt % hurt a lot less. In that case, the defense, if complemented with an elite offense, can be good enough to win a title. That’s why I want Emmitt Williams so badly. I do think a potentially elite rebounder like Bagley instantly improves the defense meaningfully in that way, especially when he takes time away from terrible rebounder Bolden.


That said, I’m concerned that Bagley could essentially make one or both of DeLaurier or Vrank valueless to the program in the future. I get that we don’t have a lot of guards, but does anyone think Duke can give time to more than 3 bigs? If we cannot, that’s another year of those two guys rotting away- and that may be the end of them at Duke. Even if you can make the argument that because of the dearth of guards that K has no choice but to give time to 4 bigs (and that argument should be met with skepticism), that still leaves one of them out in the cold. And given that DeLaurier has one more year of eligibility versus Vrank, I would probably invest in him first if forced to choose. And this is coming from a guy who loves Vrank.


The perfect 4 man big rotation would be Bagley-Carter-DeLaurier-Vrank, with Bolden somewhere in Texas. But that ain’t happening.

 

[cameron06]

I think when you start going down the path of >1 OAD you have to gamble on talent, though. Ideally you'd integrate a OAD or two into a veteran roster, obviously. But when you reach the point you know you aren't going to have that veteran roster, I feel like you've committed yourself to trying to win on sheer talent and thus have to take a chance on anything to increase that collection of talent, consequences be damned. Duke basketball has now reached the point where they are fully committed to that philosophy now, for better or worse.

Totally agree

 

[cameron06]

That said DSon I doubt he comes here

 

[DukeCrow]

The curse continues

 

[rome8180]

The curse of Javin and Vrank getting minutes? I can live with that one.

 

[deepdarkblue]

UCLA has deeper pockets than Duke or USC, I guess.

 

[slswofford3]

...and UCLAs Fall Semester starts almost a month later than Duke or USC, so more time to be cleared. Say it ain't so.