Pomeroy

[dukeboy911]

Ugh at that offense.

One way to look at it is, it can't get much worse. Gotta think (or i guess hope) there's a a decent chance it improves during the tourney.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Wow at Sparty being #44

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Wow at Sparty being #44

The date is a bit misleading. They only played three games in that period (2 against Wisc) because the Big 10 schedule ended in Feb. Go back to an earlier point. I went back one month to Feb 12th and they were #11.

 

[rome8180]

Going back one month puts Duke as the 2nd best team behind Michigan.

 

[DrKlahn]

https://kenpom.com/blog/2018-ncaa-tournament-probabilities/

It’s funny how much we have fussed over these numbers this year when we probably should be enjoying it—this is the highest ranked Duke team pre-Tournament since 2011, and probably the first Duke team since then that Pomeroy has liked more than Duke fans (or at least this subset of Duke fans)

 

[burksballer20]

This is DF. We love to be fickle and gripe about what we can

 

[dukeboy911]

Ya it is pretty strange. Numbers suggest we should go pretty far. Eye-test, though, says to be cautious.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

2010 was THE year for underrating Duke. This is really nothing in comparison.

There were no Duke fans other than the blindly faithful who thought the 2010 team was going to do much in the Tournament. Some picked Duke as the value pick of the bracket, since they figured everyone was picking Kansas and few people would pick the same unathletic Duke players who busted for 5 years before that. Vegas had exploitable odds on Duke that year, which almost never happens with futures - I think Duke was 8-1 on most books after the bracket was revealed (11%). Kenpom must have had Duke at 15-20%.

Duke winning it all made the nerds realize how stupid they had been all season for not fully believing in efficiency, and it was the event that got Kenpom over the hump with them. Then it fanned out to the masses more slowly. This was the "one-shining e-mail" post that encapsulated it all:

One shining e-mail
Ken Pomeroy | 04.05.10

This will have to stand as representative of the many e-mails that my computer received in February and March from people claiming their eyes were soooo much better. A computer has to vent, sometimes, and in light of recent events, my computer finds the subject matter especially amusing.

from Somebody
to ratings@kenpom.com
date Tue, Feb 16, 2010 at 10:42 AM
subject Skewed….

Ken,
I spent many years as a sportswriter for [a newspaper] and always found your ratings useful. This season, however, is proof that your instrument needs some tweaking. Any ratings that have a middling Duke team ranked 12 slots higher than Villanova and 15 slots higher than a Georgetown team which disemboweled Duke head to head needs some adjusting. I know your matrix is supposed to make conference affiliation superfluous, but the ACC REALLY stinks this season, and your system doesn’t reflect what any set of eyes immediately tells us.
— Somebody


The only people who say stuff like this anymore are the completely irredeemable morons, but this was basically what everyone was saying in 2010, including the vast majority of Duke fans. Duke was Wisconsin before Wisconsin.

 

[rhfarmer]

I was a Kenpom devotee at that point already and was shocked by how few pundits liked Duke. I was way more confident in 2010 than I was in 2015 or am now.

 

[burksballer20]

The emergence of Zoub's rebounding was like this year's emergence of Duke's defense

 

[dukeboy911]

The emergence of Zoub's rebounding was like this year's emergence of Duke's defense

Let's hope so

 

[rhfarmer]

I'm trying to remember if there were any indications of Duke being a good defensive team in 2015.

 

[physicsfactor]

Duke's AdjD was 95.2 (#38) going into the 2015 tournament. I believe it bottomed out at 96.2 (#55) after that OT win at Virginia Tech in late February, so I guess it had improved slightly going into the tournament but not much.

 

[bluedevilruss]

Duke's AdjD was 95.2 (#38) going into the 2015 tournament. I believe it bottomed out at 96.2 (#55) after that OT win at Virginia Tech in late February, so I guess it had improved slightly going into the tournament but not much.

Most likely the pasting we gave NCST before losing to ND.

 

[physicsfactor]

https://kenpom.com/blog/2018-ncaa-tournament-probabilities/

It’s funny how much we have fussed over these numbers this year when we probably should be enjoying it—this is the highest ranked Duke team pre-Tournament since 2011, and probably the first Duke team since then that Pomeroy has liked more than Duke fans (or at least this subset of Duke fans)

I don't know how much it would affect things, but it doesn't appear that he is factoring in location with teams that are playing semi-home/road games. I looked at previous tournaments, and he calls everything neutral which as we all too unfortunately know is not accurate in many tournament matchups.

 

[Slap the Floor]

nevermind

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[aiw]

That pic was clearly during a Jack White dunk

 

[aiw]

Duke now only top 10 O and D team on kenpom

 

[rhfarmer]

will make our Tourney flame out more unprecedented.