Game Thread [2023-24] NCAA Tournament

[DurhamSon]

If K was still in charge i'd agree, but I think to narrow the horizon to only a championship or bust doesn't account for the context of our coaching situation. Scheyer getting to a Final Four in his first contract, when combined with the stellar recruiting and competitiveness within the top of the conference, essentially validates him as a worthy Blue Blood caliber successor and shuts down any narratives and question marks opposing coaches may try to use about his uncertain future. Even if they get blown out by Purdue or UCONN after that, it would be more than worth it

 

[Devilsforlife]

Beating a higher seed for the first time in 30 fucking years, after six consecutive losses, would mean a lot to me, too. Tonight would be such a massive win.

 

[DurhamSon]

Yeah it would reflect really well on Scheyer for that point too. Certainly would be our 2nd biggest tournament win by strength of opponent in 25+ years.

Not to mention the demoralizing effect on our peer programs it would have if we were playing in April: Coach K is gone but Duke isn't going anywhere, like you always claimed would occur, and you're in for this for another thirty or more years potentially. Also raises K's prestige in how the succession played out and his role in it

 

[DUKERULES14]

DSon hit the nail on the head. Jon getting to a FF would be very huge for him, regardless of what happens afterward. Even just winning tonight would be big.

It's too early to have a title or bust mindset with Jon. At this point, he just needs to prove he can tangibly keep Duke elite. He's close, but not yet there, IMO Anything he does to take the pressure off next year's group to win would be big for him.

 

[Topher]

If K was still in charge i'd agree, but I think to narrow the horizon to only a championship or bust doesn't account for the context of our coaching situation. Scheyer getting to a Final Four in his first contract, when combined with the stellar recruiting and competitiveness within the top of the conference, essentially validates him as a worthy Blue Blood caliber successor and shuts down any narratives and question marks opposing coaches may try to use about his uncertain future. Even if they get blown out by Purdue or UCONN after that, it would be more than worth it

Completely agree.

I’ve watched from afar the last few years and I can’t help but notice similarities to Mikel Arteta taking over Arsenal after Wenger. There was a bridge manager for 18 months but whatever.

Arteta and Scheyer were both young, debutant coaches with ties to the heart of the club. Arteta got a ton of grief for not winning right away but the task at hand was rebuilding the culture, removing hindrances in the process, and clearing deadwood from the roster.

Scheyer has had a similar task: reinventing Duke basketball in K’s wake, diving into the new NIL environment, and breaking ground with necessary off-court enhancements like hiring a GM.

On the court/pitch, both have shown tactical acumen and excellent recruiting skills but they lack experience in the nuances of being a leader at THIS level.

Seeing Arteta, who is effectively two years ahead of Scheyer on the career arc, reap all the benefit of that early groundwork has led me to far more patience with Jon. I think we’ll have at least one FF appearance in his first contract, if not a title.

Trust the Process

 

[rome8180]

If K was still in charge i'd agree, but I think to narrow the horizon to only a championship or bust doesn't account for the context of our coaching situation. Scheyer getting to a Final Four in his first contract, when combined with the stellar recruiting and competitiveness within the top of the conference, essentially validates him as a worthy Blue Blood caliber successor and shuts down any narratives and question marks opposing coaches may try to use about his uncertain future. Even if they get blown out by Purdue or UCONN after that, it would be more than worth it

As a bonus it would also shut up Duke Twitter.

 

[CK86]

I pretty much completely avoid Duke twitter and only follow a few recruiting accounts. Anymore, all the main recruiting wins end up on espn's site anyway so I think not following the 'life or death' Duke twitter types has been a positive. If Duke happens to lose, I avoid twitter for 20-30 minutes afterwards and then my timeline has moved on. I don't have to constantly re-live a team's single game failure.

 

[rome8180]

This year is perceived as a bit of a failure. Winning at least two more games would completely flip that.

Oddly, the most scathing criticism I've seen has been from the prominent figures on Duke Twitter. It's not coming from rival fanbases. It's not coming from the media. It's coming from a handful of people who aren't basketball experts, aren't insiders, and aren't even credentialed media members. They are nobodies who have built up massive followings by getting on Twitter early (2012-ish) and tweeting about Duke every day, dozens of times a day.

 

[rome8180]

The Kenpom statistical profile is right where I hoped it would be for this team, given the personnel. Top 5 with 5/20 splits. I think I even said more like 5/30, tbh. I also hoped we would at least make the Sweet Sixteen and finish in the top 2 in the conference. For me, the big disappointments were the last two losses of the season. I expected at least a split with UNC and an appearance in the ACC title game. So it's below par for me atm. But two more wins would flip that, big time. One more win would still be encouraging but would only be like 80% redemption relative to expectations.

 

[rome8180]

It would also give credit to the "Scheyer's teams get better throughout the season instead of stagnating like K's" narrative. That narrative seemed dead when we lost to UNC and State.

 

[Devilsforlife]

It’s the damn UNC game at Cameron, for me. State loss I kinda don’t care about anymore given they were clearly a team of destiny in the ACCT (silly as that sounds).

 

[rome8180]

It kind of does seem like all UNC cared about was beating us. That can be hard to overcome given the experience gap.

 

[dukebluedevils05]

It’s the damn UNC game at Cameron, for me. State loss I kinda don’t care about anymore given they were clearly a team of destiny in the ACCT (silly as that sounds).

Exactly this for me. Obviously in the moment I was heated with the State loss, but clearly they’ve gone on a run and resembling a ‘team of destiny’ deal to them, as you said. In retrospect that one doesn’t bother me that much.

Being throttled by UNC twice, especially in Cameron, set me back. I still think we’re a better team than them on a neutral court, but that’s hard to argue given the results.

 

[CK86]

I think UNC was just a bad matchup for this year's team. Great in transition and attacking the offensive boards while getting unexpected 'out of their mind' performances from role players. Just gave up too many easy points against them, fell behind early and had to fight like hell to try to get back into it.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

If K was still in charge i'd agree, but I think to narrow the horizon to only a championship or bust doesn't account for the context of our coaching situation. Scheyer getting to a Final Four in his first contract, when combined with the stellar recruiting and competitiveness within the top of the conference, essentially validates him as a worthy Blue Blood caliber successor and shuts down any narratives and question marks opposing coaches may try to use about his uncertain future. Even if they get blown out by Purdue or UCONN after that, it would be more than worth it

You're correct we need to reframe our thinking. I just haven't been able to do that yet. Part of me also falls back on the "eh I don't care THAT much about a FF without title, we just got there two years ago" but of course that wasn't with Scheyer.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

If we win tonight, the UNC "second game theory" takes like its second loss in the last 25 years.

I actually think it's fair to completely exclude '19 because Zion didn't play.

 

[Devilsforlife]

If we win tonight, the UNC "second game theory" takes like its second loss in the last 25 years.

I actually think it's fair to completely exclude '19 because Zion didn't play.

Even if we lose it still does, since both teams would have been eliminated in the same round. For the first time in 45 years!

 

[DurhamSon]

If K was still in charge i'd agree, but I think to narrow the horizon to only a championship or bust doesn't account for the context of our coaching situation. Scheyer getting to a Final Four in his first contract, when combined with the stellar recruiting and competitiveness within the top of the conference, essentially validates him as a worthy Blue Blood caliber successor and shuts down any narratives and question marks opposing coaches may try to use about his uncertain future. Even if they get blown out by Purdue or UCONN after that, it would be more than worth it

You're correct we need to reframe our thinking. I just haven't been able to do that yet. Part of me also falls back on the "eh I don't care THAT much about a FF without title, we just got there two years ago" but of course that wasn't with Scheyer.

That's fair, and I was giving the perspective of the public, normie-fan narrative effect. I myself am not going to put that much stock into it either, I don't think a two game stretch is that meaningful in the run of a season; *just* a sweet 16 vs FF doesn't really differentiate coaching ability and promise when it is over-indexing in on results that could be wildly different with just a handful of possessions. As an example late-stage K's legacy is probably bolstered quite a bit in the public eye if he makes consecutive FFs in 2018 and 2019. All it would have taken is what, three possessions going the opposite way? That's supposed to be the difference between "failure" and what would be perceived as the type of run Dean Smith had to close his career? Doesn't make sense analytically

If Scheyer keeps producing KP top ten, let alone top five teams, he will get to a FF and probably win a title, it's just a matter of time and getting enough cracks at it. So i'm already satisfied enough

 

[rome8180]

If K was still in charge i'd agree, but I think to narrow the horizon to only a championship or bust doesn't account for the context of our coaching situation. Scheyer getting to a Final Four in his first contract, when combined with the stellar recruiting and competitiveness within the top of the conference, essentially validates him as a worthy Blue Blood caliber successor and shuts down any narratives and question marks opposing coaches may try to use about his uncertain future. Even if they get blown out by Purdue or UCONN after that, it would be more than worth it

You're correct we need to reframe our thinking. I just haven't been able to do that yet. Part of me also falls back on the "eh I don't care THAT much about a FF without title, we just got there two years ago" but of course that wasn't with Scheyer.

It's still weird to me that a Final Four is considered so much more validating than an Elite Eight. Meanwhile, people (including people on this site) treat the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight as virtually identical.

 

[CK86]

I am just going to try to enjoy the games tonight and if Duke wins, awesome. If Duke loses, it wasn't their year. Hopefully next year will have a more complementary roster with valuable lessons (both players and coaching wise) gained from either outcome. It's still kind of a mix of K's late era roster and obviously Jon's recruits which is why I've said I always considered this year to be year 1 and last year was year 0.