Game Thread [2023-24] North Carolina

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Saturday, March 9, 6:30pm ET, ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium

Having ended the head coaching tenures of Kenny Payne, Tony Bennett and Kevin Keatts in rapid succession, Duke has its own coach’s legacy to play for now. This is the most important regular season game of Jon Scheyer’s coaching career.

 

[Devilsforlife]

The regular season title will be on the line. We didn’t fare well while battling UNC for it in the finale under Roy. Let’s put another later era K bugaboo to bed and get this done.

It also has to be noted, the winner of the second Duke-UNC game has gone deeper in the postseason in 17 of the last 20 years. I am a true believer in its predictive value.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

This game is very likely the difference between a 2 and a 3 for Duke, and could be the difference between a 1 and a 3 for UNC, so it would be surprising for this not to impact postseason performance more than any other regular season game in college basketball.

 

[rome8180]

I see the vote is split at 7 and 7. This board is becoming dangerously optimistic.

 

[bfactor]

And after we've accurately predicted all 30 of our 6 losses for the year. Bold.

 

[DUKERULES14]

The regular season title will be on the line. We didn’t fare well while battling UNC for it in the finale under Roy. Let’s put another later era K bugaboo to bed and get this done.

It also has to be noted, the winner of the second Duke-UNC game has gone deeper in the postseason in 17 of the last 20 years. I am a true believer in its predictive value.

This really is Jon's biggest game to date.

Late K did suck in these kinds of games late with the reg season on the line. I'm having a hard time remembering the last one of these he won over Carolina

 

[Devilsforlife]

The regular season title will be on the line. We didn’t fare well while battling UNC for it in the finale under Roy. Let’s put another later era K bugaboo to bed and get this done.

It also has to be noted, the winner of the second Duke-UNC game has gone deeper in the postseason in 17 of the last 20 years. I am a true believer in its predictive value.

This really is Jon's biggest game to date.

Late K did suck in these kinds of games late with the reg season on the line. I'm having a hard time remembering the last one of these he won over Carolina

82-50 sewed up the RS crown in 2010. Otherwise, it wasn’t a pretty picture:

2008: Both Duke and UNC come in at 13-2, Heels win as we go ice cold down the stretch
2009: UNC enters 12-3, Duke 11-4, Heels come out on top by 8 in a game that never really felt in doubt
2011: Both teams 12-3, UNC rolls to victory at the Smith Center
2012: Both teams 13-2, UNC pastes us at Cameron

Actually haven’t entered the finale with the RS title on the line since. We were already out of it in 2013, 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023, and had clinched against Pitt in 2022.

 

[DurhamSon]

That list isn't actually as bad as I remember, I guess I more remember him fumbling the bag in 2015, 2019, and really badly in 2020, but I guess that was over multiple games.

2008 we probably weren't going to beat Lawson tbh, though it sucks because we were ranked #1 at some point that season before running on fumes with Singler at center. 2009 they were obviously way better, and we still led the game at halftime, but it was precarious. 2011 was awful, we were better than them and showed it in the ACCT rematch; should never have been in that position because Singler killed us at a game in Blacksburg that cost us a recruit and UNC won a bunch of bullshit close games including like two buzzer beaters. 2012 just flat out overachieved and it was shocking we were even in it against UNC by the last game.

 

[bluedevilruss]

I can’t wait for the “too small” payback from Proctor or Roach (since we all know Chad Flip isn’t showing up)

 

[uncy12]

I expect a Duke win. UNC hasn’t really played a good game in month outside of VT.

 

[dukeboy911]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but IF Duke were to somehow win Saturday (ESPN matchup predictor giving us a ~75% chance right now), Duke would solidify the 1 seed in the ACC tourney, correct?

This is assuming UVA finishes 3rd (where both Duke and unc have similar records) and Syracuse finishes 4th (where Duke has a win and unc has a loss). So the tie-breaker would end up being Syracuse.

And even if Syracuse loses tonight in their last game of the regular season against Clemson (and Clemson somehow moves up to 4th), we have the tie breaker in that scenario as well due to Clemson being another one of unc's losses and while we have a win against Clemson.

It also appears that 74-73 loss to GT by unc will also end up being quite massive.

 

[physicsfactor]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but IF Duke were to somehow win Saturday (ESPN matchup predictor giving us a ~75% chance right now), Duke would solidify the 1 seed in the ACC tourney, correct?

No, there are still scenarios where record against Wake and/or Pitt end up in the tiebreaker between Duke and UNC which Duke would lose.

 

[dukeboy911]

Current standings for 3rd place, record, and remaining games:

#3 - UVA	12-7	v #13 GT
#4 - SYR	11-8	@ #5 CLEM
#5 - CLEM	10-8	v #4 SYR, @#7 WAKE
#6 - PITT	10-8	v #8 FSU, v #9 NCST
#7 - WAKE	10-8	v #13 GT, v #5 CLEM

I'm assuming the above already accounts for updated tie-breakers. So for Duke to not have the tiebreaker, both UVA and SYR would have to lose their last regular season games, and then CLEM would have to lose to WAKE.

Then either one of PITT/WAKE would have to win out in order to get the #3 seed, I believe.

Basically, we're big Syracuse fans tonight. Although there may be scenarios I don't know about where even if SYR wins tonight, one of PITT/WAKE could surpass them if either wins out. So I guess the simplest way for all this to end is just UVA not fucking up at home this Saturday against GT.

 

[physicsfactor]

I don't care if Duke wins the tiebreaker with UNC as much as I want UVA/Pitt on Duke’s side of the bracket instead of Clemson/Wake.

 

[savedukebball]

Yeah, could care less if we play at 12:00 or 7:00 if we're the regular season co-champions either way. I think there's a scenario where UNC, UVA, Clemson, and Wake Forest are all on the bottom half of the bracket and Duke potentially has Syracuse/Pittsburgh in the 4/5... that seems okay.

 

[physicsfactor]

UNC has rounded into form at the right time

 

[dukebluedevils05]

Harrison Ingram is 4-23 from 3 in their last four games.

 

[savedukebball]

Harrison Ingram is 4-23 from 3 in their last four games.

Just in time to catch fire on Saturday!

 

[Slap the Floor]

UNC has rounded into form at the right time

This was their first truly impressive performance from start to finish since they beat us. Notre Dame is 12-18 and #126 on KenPom.

 

[physicsfactor]

UNC has rounded into form at the right time

This was their first truly impressive performance from start to finish since they beat us. Notre Dame is 12-18 and #126 on KenPom.

Like I said, at the right time. Just like 2022.