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Duke Basketball 2016-2017



18% chance for Duke, which is inflated by Vegas needing to make money. Real odds around 12-15%. Allen officially announcing his return would bump real odds to 15-18%. Good showing by Tatum at Nike Hoop Summit would reinforce.
 
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Ingram should change his mind. I want to go 40-0.
 
Jesus, things could not be falling into place much better.........and if Bolden says yes as well.........
 
The next biggest decisions, in order of importance for the upcoming season:

1. Marques Bolden (Duke or Kentucky)
Likely Duke. Will require Sean Obi to go off of scholarship due to permanent medical disability (not joking).

2. Josh Jackson (Kansas or Michigan State or Arizona)
Likely Kansas. MSU and Arizona would both become contenders with Jackson. Kansas would become a clear #2 or #3 overall with Jackson, and would have a good chance to overtake Duke as the best team in the country due to the wide gap in defensive coaching.

3. NCAA on Louisville (postseason ban or not)
No idea.

4. NCAA on UNC (postseason ban or not)
Likely postseason ban. I mean, come on.

5. If no postseason ban for Louisville, Chinanu Onuaku (NBA or Louisville)
#46 on DraftExpress 2016 mock draft, but have to believe he'll stay instead of going in the mid-2nd round.

6. If no postseason ban for UNC, collectively: Joel Berry, Isaiah Hicks, Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks (NBA or UNC)
If UNC is banned, have to believe at least Hicks and Meeks will leave, either to the NBA draft or with the NCAA allowing them to transfer without sitting out a year. Berry and Jackson probably leave in that scenario as well.

7. Collectively: Carlton Bragg, Devonte' Graham, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (NBA or Kansas)
All likely to stay at Kansas.

8. Deyonta Davis (NBA or Michigan State)
Reports are "50/50" but he's #13 on the DraftExpress 2016 mock draft. Likely gone.
 
Louisville self-imposed scholarship reductions and recruiting limits, but no ban thus far.
 
Current ACC asset flows:

1. Duke
#20 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Amile Jefferson (from Duke) - 10.3 BPM
Harry Giles - composite #2 overall freshman
Jayson Tatum - #3
Frank Jackson - #14
Marques Bolden (?) - #20
Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier - #44

Outgoing:
Marshall Plumlee - 9.8 BPM
Brandon Ingram - 7.5 BPM
Derryck Thornton (?) - 0.9 BPM
Sean Obi (?) - negative 3.3 BPM

2. North Carolina
#2 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Tony Bradley - #30
Seventh Woods - #48
Brandon Robinson - #58

Outgoing:
Brice Johnson - 13.4 BPM
Kennedy Meeks (?) - 9.5 BPM
Marcus Paige - 8.6 BPM
Joel James - negative 4.1 BPM

3. Louisville
#10 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Mangok Mathiang (from Louisville) - 9.5 BPM
Tony Hicks (from Penn) - negative 2.0 BPM
VJ King - #28

Outgoing:
Chinanu Onuaku (?) - 13.9 BPM
Damion Lee - 9.0 BPM
Trey Lewis - 6.7 BPM

4. Virginia
#3 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Austin Nichols (from Memphis) - 6.7 BPM
Mamadi Diakite - top 25 caliber recruit (imprecise due to reclassification)
Kyle Guy - #38
Ty Jerome - #43
Jay Huff - #98
DeAndre Hunter - #116

(Note: Ty Jerome is white.)

Outgoing:
Malcolm Brogdon - 11.1 BPM
Anthony Gill - 8.9 BPM
Mike Tobey - 8.0 BPM
Evan Nolte - 5.3 BPM

5. Syracuse
#24 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Paschal Chukwu (from Providence) - 6.2 BPM
Tyus Battle - #29
Matthew Moyer - #59

Outgoing:
Michael Gbinije - 8.6 BPM
Trevor Cooney - 3.8 BPM

6. Miami
#13 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Rashad Muhammad (from San Jose State) - negative 1.9 BPM
Dewan Huell - #25
Bruce Brown - #36
Rodney Miller - #103
Dejan Vasiljevic - #213

Outgoing:
Sheldon McClellan - 9.3 BPM
Angel Rodriguez - 8.5 BPM
Tonye Jekiri - 5.5 BPM
Ivan Cruz Uceda - 5.3 BPM

7. Virginia Tech
#57 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Khadim Sy - #251

Outgoing:
Shane Henry - negative 0.7 BPM

8. Pittsburgh
#43 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Crisshawn Clark - JUCO (3-star caliber talent)
Corey Manigault - #162
Justice Kithcart - #228

Outgoing:
Rafael Maia - 6.2 BPM
Sterling Smith - 5.3 BPM
Alonzo Nelson-Ododa - 4.3 BPM

9. Notre Dame
#35 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Temple Gibbs - #76
John Mooney - #147
Nikola Djogo - #282

Outgoing:
Demetrius Jackson - 6.7 BPM
Zach Auguste - 4.2 BPM

10. Florida State
#50 KenPom ranking

Incoming:
Michael Ojo (from Florida State) - negative 1.3 BPM
Jonathan Isaac - #12
Trent Forrest - #66
CJ Walker - #108
Mfiondu Kabevgele - #333

Outgoing:
Boris Bojanovsky - 8.8 BPM
Devon Bookert - 7.7 BPM
Malik Beasley (?) - 5.7 BPM
Xavier Rathan-Mayes (?) - 3.0 BPM
Montay Brandon - 2.9 BPM
 
This one might as well go Duke's way too:



At this rate, there will be no contenders. Just Duke, left alone to pull a 1999.
 
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If that shitty NBA job doesn't pan out, he could always put his hat in the ring for the GIT job.
 
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Harry Giles looks like he has a weird hat on his head.
 
It is becoming extremely difficult for me to remain pessimistic about this team. Look at these measurements from the Nike Hoop Summit, by DraftExpress:
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/201 ... ments-5428

Harry Giles
Height (w/ shoes): 6-10.75
Weight: 222
Wingspan: 7-3
Standing Reach: 9-1

As we've stated every time we've received data on him before, Harry Giles has terrific size for a power forward. However, he has, at least on paper, lost some 10 pounds since earlier this year. Missing the entire season after tearing his ACL for the second time in his high school career last November, it will be interesting to see how Giles's frame progresses at the next level given how quickly he lost the weight he had seemingly worked diligently to gain.

Jayson Tatum
Height (w/ shoes): 6-8.25
Weight: 204
Wingspan: 6'11
Standing Reach: 8-10.5

Like Jackson, Tatum's measurements line up with the data we've received in the past. The thought was that the talented small forward may have some growing left to do when he first shot up to 6'8 two years ago, but that hasn't been the case to this point. Nonetheless, Tatum has good size for his position at any level, even if his frame is still developing.

Marques Bolden
Height (w/ shoes): 6-11
Weight: 250
Wingspan: 7-6
Standing Reach: 9'4.5

As impressive as Allen's measurements are, Bolden's are perhaps just as jaw-dropping. Already bigger than exceptionally long multi-college season NBA players like Cole Aldrich and JaVale McGee, few players in our database share Bolden's combination of length and strength. He has some work to do on his frame, but given he has one of the top-20 or so wingspans and standing reaches ever recorded in our database, it isn't hard to guess what makes Bolden such a highly regarded recruit and long-term prospect. From a sheer height and length perspective, Bolden is most similar to DeMarcus Cousins who was measured at 6'10.75 in shoes with a 7'5.75 wingspan at the 2010 NBA Draft Combine, albeit with a heavy 292-pound frame he's cut weight from in the NBA.

Frank Jackson
Height (w/ shoes): 6-3.5
Weight: 208
Wingspan: 6-6.75
Standing Reach: 8-4.5

Possessing an impressive frame for a high school guard, Frank Jackson shared similar measurable with former Illinois point guard Deron Williams who stood 6'2.75 in shoes with a 202-pound frame and a 6'6.25 wingspan coming out of Illinois. Jackson also grades out very similar to Randy Foye. Listed closer to 170 pounds just a few years ago, Jackson has clearly put in a lot of work on his frame already.

The 2014-15 class was exciting for their talent and ability, but not so much for their freakishness. This class is both good at basketball and pterodactyl-like, which should produce kind of a hybrid between 2015 Duke and 2015 Kentucky.

Loss in Sweet Sixteen.
 
If K is really sick of watching an ass defensive team, he can throw this lineup out there:

Grayson Allen (6-6.5 wingspan)
Jayson Tatum (6-11)
Amile Jefferson (7-0)
Harry Giles (7-3)
Marques Bolden (7-6)

Of course this would look terrible on offense, but I don't think it would actually be that inefficient offensively. They would grab nearly 50% of their missed shots and make about 70% of their 2pt attempts.
 
Since Amile doesn't have perimeter skills really, and thus Giles would more of the SF on offense in your lineup anyway, you might be able to swap Amile for Jeter down low and move Bolden to the 4. Jeter's wingspan was measured at 7' 1.5" in 2015, but he had a 9' 2.5" reach, and may have actually grown a bit in the past year.
 
That lineup against Louisville would have a TO rate of 80%
 
Man, I hate it when I lose 10 pounds that I worked so hard to gain.
 

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