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Duke Basketball 2016-2017


2006 Florida comes in at #5 and yet looks up to both of our recent title teams. So yeah, K's two recent championship teams were ridiculously dominant in the tournament.


Welp 2017 squad, good luck filling those shoes...not that there's any pressure or ridiculous expectations. :cry:
 
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Just have to suddenly go from having a defense that allowed VT to score 1.3 PPP to having the best tournament defense in the last fifteen seasons. No big deal.
 
I clicked on that link and I think he might be 12. But John Watson says the staff knows what they are doing and so we should stop questioning them, so...
 
I've been impressed by White's recent videos. If he can deal with the mental aspect of playing for K, I think he'll be fine. He seems to be a bit of a raconteur with the ball in his hands.
 
rhfarmer said:
I've been impressed by White's recent videos. If he can deal with the mental aspect of playing for K, I think he'll be fine. He seems to be a bit of a raconteur with the ball in his hands.
Click to expand...



 
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I'm trying to project Duke freshman performance as part of a bigger project to kill time.

I'm going to use BPM because it's just the best and easiest stat for this. BPM is available starting in the 2010-11 season (the Kyrie Irving/Enes Kanter season). This is the big graph so far, including all top 25 recruits from each season:

TnpjMmc.png


Notable dots:

Rank 23, BPM around 15 - Joel Embiid, Kansas 2014
Rank 1, BPM around 19 - Anthony Davis, Kentucky 2012
Rank 4, BPM around 17 - Karl Towns, Kentucky 2015
Rank 1, BPM around 15 - Nerlens Noel, Kentucky 2013
Rank 2, BPM around 14 - Kyrie Irving, Duke 2011
Rank 13, BPMs around 12-13 - D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State 2015; Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State 2013; Cody Zeller, Indiana 2012
Rank 9, BPM around -2 - LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State 2012
Rank 17, BPM around -4 - Wayne Blackshear, Louisville 2012

Total top 25 freshman BPM average 2011-2016 = 5.5
Total top 25 freshman BPM median 2011-2016 = 5.3

2011 average = 5.1
2011 median = 5.2

2012 average = 5.3
2012 median = 5.0

2013 average = 5.1
2013 median = 4.2

2014 average = 5.5
2014 median = 6.1

2015 average = 7.6
2015 median = 8.2

2016 average = 4.3
2016 median = 4.0

The 2016 season was the worst for freshman performance since BPM was recorded. This aligns with the narrative that the upcoming draft will be one of the worst in recent memory and that the most recently completed season was lacking in talent generally.

The 2015 season featured incredibly great freshman performance. This aligns with the perceived strength of the NBA rookie class this year and the perceived abundance of talent in college basketball in the 2015 season.

To start putting this information to use, we can project the BPMs of the incoming Duke freshmen for next season by using the formula for the trendline in the graph:

Harry Giles (Scout Rank #1)
Projected BPM = 10.2
#1 recruits in this sample ranged from a low of 5.2 BPM (Skal Labissiere, Kentucky 2016) to a high of 18.7 BPM (Anthony Davis, Kentucky 2012)

Jayson Tatum (Scout Rank #3)
Projected BPM = 8.0
#3 recruits in this sample ranged from a low of 3.7 BPM (Austin Rivers, Duke 2012) to a high of 10.2 BPM (Stanley Johnson, Arizona 2015)
Rank 1-5 recruits ranged from 2.7 (Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA 2013) to 18.7 (Davis)

Marques Bolden (school TBD) (Scout Rank #12)
Projected BPM = 5.1
#12 recruits in this sample ranged from a low of 3.8 BPM (Will Barton, Memphis 2011) to a high of 10.4 BPM (Justise Winslow, Duke 2015)
Rank 10-14 recruits ranged from 0.0 (Malik Newman, Mississippi State 2016) to 12.5 (Cody Zeller, Indiana 2012)

Frank Jackson (Scout Rank #17)
Projected BPM = 4.4
#17 recruits in this sample ranged from a low of -3.7 BPM (Wayne Blackshear, Louisville 2012) to a high of 8.0 (Donovan Mitchell, Louisville 2016)
Rank 15-19 recruits ranged from -3.7 (Blackshear) to 10.4 (Sam Dekker, Wisconsin 2013)

The best team in KenPom.com history (since 2002) was Kentucky 2015, judging by KenPom's "Pyth" ratings. Let's look at the individual BPMs on Kentucky 2015 (excluding players with less than 400 minutes played):

Karl Towns 17.3
Willie Cauley-Stein 14.7
Marcus Lee 10.4
Dakari Johnson 10.2
Andrew Harrison 9.0
Tyler Ulis 9.0
Devin Booker 8.9
Trey Lyles 8.9
Aaron Harrison 8.8

Average BPM of Kentucky 2015 rotation: 10.8

Ridiculous. I suppose that's what it takes to be the best team of the past 15 seasons. Their worst rotation player had an 8.8 BPM.

Let's look at last season's BPMs for Duke's returning rotation players, and let's insert the projections for the incoming freshmen:

Amile Jefferson 10.3
Harry Giles 10.2
Grayson Allen 9.7
Jayson Tatum 8.0
Luke Kennard 6.3
Matt Jones 6.0
Marques Bolden 5.1
Frank Jackson 4.4

Average BPM of Duke 2017 rotation (without accounting for improvement of returners) = 7.5

Let's look at the most recent national champions and #1 KenPom team, Villanova 2016:

Daniel Ochefu 13.8
Mikal Bridges 11.5
Kris Jenkins 10.4
Josh Hart 10.0
Ryan Arcidiacono 9.0
Darryl Reynolds 7.1
Jalen Brunson 4.7
Phil Booth 4.2

Average BPM of Villanova 2016 rotation = 8.8

That's more like it. Duke 2017 can get to 8.8 on average. The average Villanova 2016 rotation player was on par with the worst Kentucky 2015 player.

The obvious next step is to project BPM increases for the returning players, and then complete this entire analysis for all other contenders next season. I'd also like to calculate weighted averages based on realistic minutes distributions (i.e., Grayson Allen shouldn't simply be averaged along with Marques Bolden, since Allen's minutes should be much higher than Bolden's minutes). Using a composite ranking system instead of just Scout.com's rankings would be nice as well. I'll get to all that later.
 
I didn't realize this was out already, but here are Duke's home/road conference opponents for next season:


Duke 2016-17
Home/Road: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Miami
Home: Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State, Pitt, Boston College
Road: Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame


Pretty tough road only slate, but the teams we drew 2x are not terrific. Bold prediction is that we go 3-0 against Larranaga and Brey.
 
Who the fuck makes these schedules? After next season, we will have played Louisville 4 times since they've joined the ACC. 3 of the 4 are on the road. Makes no sense why we didn't have a home game only against Louisville this season.

Besides that, I don't mind the road schedule. If we are as good as we think, these will be tremendous challenges for us, and should help better our team just as it did in 2015. Also, we are going to likely play a road game in the ACC/B1G challenge, so add that to the list of difficult road games. Don't sleep on Virginia Tech, they're going to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament. That road schedule really is brutal.
 
It sucks that WF is our second "rival". Beating them means nothing, losing to them means a lot.
 
deepdarkblue said:
It sucks that WF is our second "rival". Beating them means nothing, losing to them means a lot.
Click to expand...

I really want Giles to dominate them next year, if possible.
 
Alex just wrapped up his fifth year, but was injured for most of it. They have petitioned the NCAA for a rare sixth year, but haven't heard.

Alex has only played one full season, and that was his first year at Duke, since he had to sit out half of his RS-sophomore season and half of his RS-junior season.
 
And he barely played then. If he gets the sixth year, he might set a record for fewest minutes played in most total seasons.
 
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