I think there’s been a lot of focus on Bolden’s offseason development and whether he can ever take a leap, whereas there’s generally been little discussion on DeLaurier, who I think is potentially developing into a very effective college big. A great garbageman is exactly what we need out of his position, as usual. I see three obstacles to him being truly elite in this role:
1. Still jumpy on defense/highly foul prone: Usually improves with age/experience
2. Defensive rebounding: Last year he was 18.7% playing 28% of the team’s minutes. Duke will never be a good defensive rebounding team based on their defensive style. Only twice has Duke finished in the top 150 in this category since 2007 (interestingly, this was 2010 and 2015, when they were in the 120s in each case). Duke was bad at this last year, finishing #236 despite Bagley and Carter being 21.3% and 23.1%, respectively, both of which are good numbers. Some of that was likely the zone but a lot of it was likely Duke getting really poor defensive rebounding out of the 1-3 positions, which feels inexcusable given the athletes they had there. Even if Duke does much better at the 1-3 this year, and the combination of greater height and Tre Jones’ reputation as a good rebounder suggests they should, they’re going to need DeLaurier/Bolden and Zion to equal or come very close to what Bagley and Carter were doing last year here. So that 18.7% from DeLaurier needs to go up a few points unless Zion is a nationally elite defensive rebounder. And Bolden was only at 18.0%. BTW, in his time last year, DeLaurier was a nationally elite OFFENSIVE rebounder at 15%, which would have put him in the top 15 nationally had he played the minutes to qualify. Bolden was at 11.9% on offense, which is fine but not special for someone at his position/size.
3. FT shooting: 55% last year on only 38 attempts. But his form feels much worse than Bolden/Zion. He may be unplayable in foul situations.
I get that the advantages of Bolden are a bit harder to quantify using individual stats (shot altering ability due to standing reach, ability to hedge, etc). I’ll be interested to see the +/- for Bolden and the four freshmen versus DeLaurier and the four freshman.