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Pomeroy

Defense #133 on 1/23/16. Think it fell as low as #148. Now #84. Wonder what the D is in that interval.
 
Nova gets smashed and goes from barely in front of MSU to barely behind them and Duke falls behind Xavier to 12
 
Due to Indiana's meteoric rise, we can now do some homer cherrypicking and say "Duke has 4 wins over the Kenpom top 15." If Duke wins out through the ACCT, and Duke's former opponents don't fall, Duke will probably end up with 7 wins over the Kenpom top 15.

Can't wait to see our first round Tournament game against 12-seed and #9 overall team Wichita State.
 
Can't be more brutal than the bracket Lunardi had for us that Ellis was filling out on air.
 
Defense fell 20 unsurprising spots. Offense up to 3. Team down to 21.
 


For 2017.

I have to think the situation at Louisville is too volatile right now for them to actually hold on to a #1 team, but he is just making assumptions based on current DraftExpress mocks and not going any further than that. The rest looks very believable, the most dangerous team obviously being the one with a former top-15 recruit returning as a senior and three former top-25 guys returning as juniors.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
He said in other tweets it assumes (i) all of the guys currently in DX 1st round mock (which includes Allen) leave and (ii) it specifically excludes Jefferson.

So I imagine if you add both of them in, Duke is a runaway 1. With just AJ, maybe it's 2.
 
I see. I didn't scroll far enough. Allen is a top 5 kp player this season so I imagine if you include him that might be enough for 1.
 
The fuck, Louisville? #1? What am I missing? Is this like a defensive-only top 10? They lose Lee and Lewis, and bring in one quite good recruit (VJ King) and no one else in the Top 200. Weird.
 
I'd be interested to see where his system ranked Pitt and FSU -- both teams that could be a lot better next year.
 
childress22 said:
The ****, Louisville? #1? What am I missing? Is this like a defensive-only top 10? They lose Lee and Lewis, and bring in one quite good recruit (VJ King) and no one else in the Top 200. Weird.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't get it either.
 
Nova's pyth is now higher than Duke's and Wisconsin's from last year. UNC will have to beat a legit juggernaut.
 
Demolishing Oklahoma will do that. There will be mean regression in the championship. We are fucked
 
I'm starting to think Ken does a lot of weighting bullshit with these last few games to make his model match the actual results better.
 
At some point this season, Pomeroy changed a bunch of calculations to previous seasons. I distinctly remember UK, Wisc, and Duke finishing 1-3 in Pyth at the end of last season, but now he has Arizona at #2 ahead of Wisc and Duke. He now has Illinois at #1 in 2005, and UNC was always #1 that year.
 
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