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Pomeroy

I feel like for us to stay at #18 defensively, Giles will have to play, Jeter will have to contribute and not transfer, Amile will have to stay healthy, and we will have to add to the coaching staff.
 
+4.5 points on the second best offense though is nuts. Same as the difference between #2 and #11 Arizona.
 
The offensive projected numbers seem oddly low across the board. UNC had the highest adj o last year at 123.3. 2014 Duke was over 124. I wonder if 2014 Duke in the first 32 minutes of game time that year was around 130 given how fucking shitty they were in last eight minutes on both sides of the ball.
 
He always starts at 120 or so, even though the final numbers end up way higher. I wonder if he's just being conservative or if there is some other reason for that.
 
You wouldn't want to project any single team to be outstanding (an outlier) at offense or defense. Although you know statistically there must be a few teams that end up being outstanding (i.e., 125+ on offense or 85- on defense), it's statistically dumb/wrong to project any individual team to be one of those outliers.

His projection for Duke's offense is probably as good as it gets for his preseason numbers.
 
I've decided I don't officially care until we have a full lineup. That may never happen.
 
Our defense started the year at 18, rose to 12, and has now slid back to 18. I assume that is due to the expected regression in the 3pt defense. 18% was obviously unsustainable and flukish.
 
BTW, has anyone noticed that with his tweaked rating system all our defensive rankings are higher in previous years? 2011 and 2013 stood out the most to me.
 
Overall defensive rating stayed the same, so that's good. Offense fell a little bit.
 
When I looked earlier today, we were at 120.8. Now at 121.
 
Oh, cool. So Nova just played better than us but we did as expected. Fine with that.
 
Final Oeff 144 for the game today and stayed the same or dropped slightly. I wonder if a team of DFers could have done a better job than Maine.
 
I am essentially a 6'1" post player, so I am sure I could have held my own against Jeter.
 
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