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Player Trevon Duval

Here are the DBR plus-minus numbers by lineup after the St. John's game, to compare Duval vs. other players when surrounded by the four locked-in rotation guys (Allen, Bagley, Carter, Trent):

Feeble Four with Duval
+/-: +224
Time: 6h 9m 29s
+/- per 40m: +24.3

Flaccid Four with O'Connell
+/-: +39
Time: 40m 50s
+/- per 40m: +38.2

Fucktarded Four with White
+/-: +26
Time: 16m 4s
+/- per 40m: +64.7

Interestingly, O'Connell also provides a slight boost relative to Allen:

Freshman Four with O'Connell
+/-: +13
Time: 19m 13s
+/- per 40m: +27.1

This is not perfectly helpful, mainly because of small sample sizes that can be thrown off by level of competition, per possession numbers being better than per minute, and the UNC numbers not being included yet. However, it would be nice for the coaches to recognize how bad Duval has been with the starters relative to other options, albeit with small sample size evidence, and actually give those other options more of a chance to prove sustainable before this season gets mercy-killed.

This is not even meant to imply Duval is a bad player, which has been discussed all over the place, constantly. What these numbers may actually show is how bad a fit Duval is with the main rotation this season. He could probably be great at Villanova this season, where 6 rotation players are shooting 40%+ from 3 and they attempt 3s at the #17 highest rate in the country.

On the other hand, O'Connell seems to help the main rotation guys, including both Allen and Duval, with his shooting and spacing. O'Connell's defense, while terrible, is not much worse than the other guards under this failing system.

It's not surprising to see OAD teams fail more than they dominate. It is surprising to see the Duke coaches not try anything and everything to maximize their chances of winning a title. Trotting the same five guys out there together for 60-70% of the game may have made sense earlier in the season, in an attempt to get them to gel and in hopes of Duval improving, but time is not on their side anymore. They should explore other options.
 
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The most infuriating part about the point guard position being an absolute train wreck for the last three years is that Duke has had the ability to land basically any player they've wanted during that timeframe, yet still haven't succeeded in finding a semi-competent ball handler. I'll give K a pass for 2016, he got caught with his pants down when Tyus unexpectedly sunk daggers into everyone's backs and left early, but there is no excuse for the disastrous decisions that have been made since then.

I hate playing the "hypothetical rosters" game, but I honestly believe that if you put Dennis Smith on last season's team and Trae Young on this squad - and they would've come had the staff wanted them, I have no doubt - the whole outlook of the seasons would've been extremely different, even with the other pervasive issues that have plagued Duke for years. Instead we have suffered through a revolving door of bad PG play, with shit for brains being at the bottom of the barrel.
 
I don’t know if there is a way to measure this but I feel like Duval is at his worst when we build a lead.
 
I don’t know if there is a way to measure this but I feel like Duval is at his worst when we build a lead.
 
I dunno if Duval's play in these situations is a cause or a byproduct, but yeah, this team often tends to go to shit a little bit once it gets up 12-14, especially early in games.
 
Things that happen once Duke builds a double-digit lead in the first half:

• Bagley misses a 3
• Duval barrels into traffic
• Grayson shortarms a wild runner in the lane

These things often lead to and-1's at the other end
 
I don't know which number bothers me more, that he had an ORTG of 84 for the game, or he had a usage of over 40%
 
I think I may play a Duval drinking game for the rest of the season. Drink after every Duval turnover and stupid play. Also after each made three. This would probably make watching Duke play much more enjoyable.
 
62% of Duval's catch and shoot jumpers are classified as "unguarded" by Synergy. He has a 29% eFG on those unguarded shots and his PPP ranks in the 6th percentile.
 
I'd laugh if I could.

I dislike that I pin so much negative energy on an individual player (never mind an 18 year old dude) but he was a key piece this year and has shown to be a colossal disappointment. My disappointment, I guess.

Even with the scouting reports you guys posted (poor shooter, risky passes) I did not envision this level of performance. His turnovers are not even 'TD trying to make a tough play' - they are sloppy, absent minded plays. Not understandable. The shot selection has been absurd, even for a freshman.
 
I'd like to see this general distribution tried at least once before the season is over:

Primary lineup (28 minutes, more zone than m2m):

Allen
O'Connell
Trent
Bagley
Carter

Change of pace smallball (12 minutes, more m2m than zone):

Duval
Allen
O'Connell
Trent
Bolden

Give Duval a real chance to shine in a lineup that can highlight his strengths and hide his weaknesses. Take O'Connell out for White in the smallball lineup for a few minutes if O'Connell can't go 40. Allen and Trent need to go 40 in every game at this point - Coaches have given themselves no choice due to the roster they've built.
 
@SeanMayTriedToEatMe I know that what you posted about is utterly hopeless, but there is a precedent under K.

Elliot Williams rotted on the bench until K realized he was a better option at PG and he moved Paulus to the bench and off the ball.

Wojo was another example.

However, in both cases, K replaced trusted leadership with overwhelming physical talent. Can't say that AOC is an athletic upgrade over Duval, but he is a better fit for this team.
 
Elliot Williams rotted on the bench until he started to consider transfer. Then he played 30+ minutes a game. Didn't help though.
 
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