Pomeroy

[aiw]

Now, it's the only thing that will save us.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Villanova was +30.11 EM prior to squeaking out a close win vs. #197 DePaul at home. Interested to see how much this result hurts them.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

UVA could be #1 by end of the night coupled with that Nova result.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Result already registered on kenpom. Villanova was #1 overall and 1.3 EM clear of #2 overall. They are now #5. As we see, a 3-point home win over a 200ish rank team is a catastrophe to computers. Another reason to believe computers will take over the world soon.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

As of now, before Virginia jumps them, the team fitting this description is objectively the best in the country:

- #1 overall freshman is giving them nothing
- #15 overall freshman is giving them nothing
- NPOY candidate from last season has taken a massive step back due to some combination of injuries, natural regression, unlucky shooting and mental retardation
- senior glue guy shot approximately 0% for an entire month
- elite big man recruit from last season is still an absolute zero offensively
- projected best overall player by end of season was injured for first month

Most of us always wanted one of those classic UConn championship teams with terrible flaws in the early season but an ultra-high ceiling, instead of the classic Duke overachievers who are well prepared in November. This is what we asked for.

 

[torontoduke]

I am surprised UVA's offense is ranked so high.

 

[rhfarmer]

I am surprised UVA's offense is ranked so high.

If Bennett can get over the "big game" hurdle, he'll end up being the best college coach in D1, IMO. People often wonder what he would do if he got more 5 star talent.

 

[rome8180]

I really think UVA's pace/style is problematic for the tournament. It's a good way of winning games as a team with less talent. However, it's also a good way of keeping any team in the game. If you're only up 53-47 due to pace, then a talented team can close that gap regardless of pace. We saw Duke do it at UVA simply by draining a bunch of threes in a row.

 

[rhfarmer]

I really think UVA's pace/style is problematic for the tournament. It's a good way of winning games as a team with less talent. However, it's also a good way of keeping any team in the game. If you're only up 53-47 due to pace, then a talented team can close that gap regardless of pace. We saw Duke do it at UVA simply by draining a bunch of threes in a row.

If you are arguing against limiting possessions then you are arguing against K's preferred way to finish off games with stall ball.

If you are arguing that teams with more talent usually win games against teams with less talent, then I agree.

 

[rome8180]

Not really. What Bennett does would be the equivalent of stalling every game from the beginning of the game, and continuing with that strategy regardless of how close it is. This means, his team often doesn't go up 20 when they should. Also, K doesn't stall in a 3 point game with 3 minutes left.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

There are 36 fewer total possessions in an average Virginia game (#351 tempo - last in country) than an average Kentucky game (#17 tempo). That's a drastic difference.

Theoretically, this should give underdogs a better chance to win against Virginia than against Kentucky, since the efficiency margin results in a smaller score margin in fewer possessions, and the 30-40% event of any given 3 going in needs to happen fewer times for the underdog to close that smaller score margin against Virginia.

However, empirically, just eyeballing the kenpom archives, this doesn't seem to hold through the NCAA Tournament since 2005. A sub-100 tempo team has won the national title every season since 2005 except for 2009. Maybe when it comes down to individual games against more evenly matched teams, the slower team is at an advantage because it's much easier to slow down the pace to what you're comfortable with than for the opponent to speed you up. And the close matchups not only occur in most tournament games (unless you're 2016 UNC), but they're also the more important matchups to have any sort of advantage in. Playing against a significant underdog in round 2, Virginia may have a greater chance of being upset than Kentucky due to score margin, for example, but we're talking about the difference between something like 20% and 25%. You'd take that "disadvantage" in round 2 if you're Virginia in exchange for the head to head advantage in a Final Four game against Kentucky when you can slow Kentucky down to a pace they aren't comfortable in.

Interestingly, the fast teams dominated from 2002-2005. Maryland 02, Syracuse 03 and UNC 05 were each no worse than #34 in tempo, and UConn 04 was top 100. There appears to be a trend of slower and slower teams winning titles, perhaps because of a talent drain (due to more frequent early NBA departures) that has led to more elite teams playing slow styles, which means elite teams that play fast are at a disadvantage more frequently in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke seems to prefer a slower style with Matt Jones snailing the ball up the court every possession, but Duke can also speed the game up against a team like Virginia. All K needs to do is play 10 guys and go with a full court press, trusting his usual bench warmers at spots 8-10 in the rotation (currently Bolden, Giles and Jeter) for 8-12 minutes a game. Lol.

 

[rome8180]

Well, I'd make a distinction between playing at a middle-of-the-road pace, like Duke does, and playing at a bottom-of-the-pack pace. But maybe even then my theory doesn't hold up. Maybe it's more about flexibility? The ability to change up depending on opponent? I think there's a reason Syracuse had won one title, for example.

Or maybe it's just noise and UVA's been unlucky.

 

[best4heisman]

I think your second paragraph is probably right. UVA has had a couple of bad tourney losses and we're over-diagnosing. Plenty of examples of teams/coaches getting hit with the "can't win it all" criticism only to prove people wrong.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

The bigger problem for Virginia while playing the anti-SportsCenter style is recruiting. They've been elite for years, and recruits should be confident that they'll continue to be elite with Bennett and 3- and 4-star recruits, yet they aren't competitive at all for elite recruits. Top 30-50 range is as good as it gets for them. This is a top academic school that has been near the top of the ACC for years. Can't get a foot in the door with 5-star recruits.

 

[DrKlahn]

Tony knows he's about two Grayson incidents away from getting all of the white kids that would have gone to Duke.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Down to 6 overall after the VT shaming. Feels way too high. If there are only 5 teams better than this Duke trash we have been sitting through for the past few weeks, then college basketball is a disaster.

 

[aiw]

VT loss pushed us a bit below Villanova again, but UVA loss kept us at 4.

 

[aiw]

We are closer to 2 than 5, but Kentucky is 2.5 points above anyone.

 

[aiw]

O back above 120 finally

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Kentucky being 9th in tempo is interesting. Good job by Calipari adjusting his typical style to a more guard heavy group, which is the obvious strength. They are currently ninth in tempo after spending the last three years in the 200s.