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[2017-18] at UNC / at GT / VT / at Clemson

Duke is favored by 11 points against VT.

Can't see any way we lose this one.

In the 9pm slot, a line I certainly didn't expect to see this season: Auburn favored by 8.5 against Kentucky.
 
I couldn’t bet confidently on this one. VT has a very good offense could easily beat Duke in a shootout. I guess if Bagley were to play Duke could dominate so much on around the rim that Tech’s shooting wouldn’t matter.
 
I guess 11 points makes me think Vegas believes Bagley will play, but I'm far from knowledgable on such things
 
They're going to absolutely kill us from three unless they have a random cold night shooting. The fact that their 4s and 5s can shoot the three especially scares me, given how much trouble our bigs have defending in space (although Bolden does this well). Not to go full Bagley Theory, but this does seem like a matchup where he would struggle quite a bit so I'm not sure how much his availability should impact our odds.

Really, really important we keep them off the offensive glass. Its hard to envision us losing this one at home, but I have very little optimism about the rematch in a couple weeks.
 
They have been a horrible offensive rebounding team this season (like most of their teams under Buzz), so hopefully that wouldn’t be a concern even if Bagley is out.

Really though, we really need Bagley back and putting up good numbers. The more games Bagley misses, the closer we are to Luke Maye winning ACC POY.
 
Honestly VT doesn't not look like a tough matchup to me.

VT numbers look somewhat scary but most of it was built through their atrocious Non-Conference schedule. Kenpom ranks their NCSOS as the 341th out of 351 DI schools.

Their overal 39.7% from 3 is from 43.7% they shot in thir non-ACC schedule, against ACC opponents they shot a mediocre 35.9%. Their 3PT% allowed is 34.4% but that's also because they allowed only 29.4% from their NC schdule, against ACC opponents they allowed 39.2%.

Their strength is actually their ability to score 2s, they shoot 57% from 2 which is best in the ACC. But Duke is actually really good at defending the 2 and VT does not offensive rebound much at all (19% ORB in ACC play) to be able to negate Duke's first shot defense. Their other offensive strength is they don't turn it over much but Duke hasn't relied on TOs at all.

VT is also bad at defending 2s and particularly bad at blocking shots. Wendel Carter has double the amount of shots blocked in ACC play as the entire VT team.

Not saying they can't win, just that I don't think on paper they look that strong a threat matchup wise, especially in Cameron.
 
Line is down to 10-10.5 points against VT.

I’d rather see Bagley skip this and continue to get healthy for Clemson. He’s not guarding anyone VT puts at the 4 anyway.
 
The tea leaves certainly seem to suggest that he won't play tonight.

This team's been playing with such a lack of cohesion lately that you could take away any individual piece in a given game and I'm not sure it would significantly alter my expectations for the outcome.
 
The 1st half of the GT game they looked pretty decent, but I guess the opponent played into that.
 
VT is extremely impressive here. Love taking advantage of defenses that are prone to layup lines.

ETA: Yikes, Northwestern.

 
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Line has crept up to 11.5-12. Seems like Vegas valued Bagley at about 2 points over replacement going into the GT game, but now they have adjusted his value to about 1 point. If Duke looks good and does well tonight, I think Bagley's value to Duke could settle at zero.
 
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